Jonathan Fear 
Celtic lost 3-1 at home to Ferencváros on 17 September. A shot from Bamidele Yusuf deflected off Liam Scales and put the visitors ahead after 20 minutes. Mika Baur levelled in the 43rd minute. Ferencváros scored again before half-time and added a third in the 47th minute. Celtic had the ball early but not control of the game. So are Celtic facing too many shots?
The picture is mixed. Celtic still lead the Premiership by two points. But they lost three games in a row to Rangers, Ferencváros, and Rangers again. This piece tests the claim with data. It keeps confirmed facts apart from interpretation.
Are Celtic Really Facing More Shots Than Last Season?
Final scores don’t tell the full story of how Celtic defend, so we’ll look at three measures: total shots conceded, shots on target, and expected goals against (xGA). The last measures the quality of chances opponents create. Like the return-to-player figures listed at https://automatenspielex.com/en, xGA is a statistical measure, not a guarantee of future results. The xGA data comes from Opta Analyst and FootyStats.
The sample is small. It covers seven league games, the Champions League play-off against LASK, a League Cup tie at Rangers, and one Europa League match. The League Cup tie ended 3-0 to Rangers. The Europa League match was a defeat to Ferencváros. Any trend claim carries that limit.
In their first seven league games this season, Celtic faced 78 shots. In the same stretch last season, they faced 41. FBref also lists 78 shots against Celtic, with 29 on target. That is 11.1 shots a game, up from 5.7. The shots have nearly doubled.
| Measure | First seven league games, 2025/26 | First seven league games, 2026/27 |
| Shots against | 41 | 78 |
| Shots on target | 12 | 29 |
Volume against Quality
More shots do not always mean better chances. A long-range shot counts the same as a close-range attempt in the basic shot total. That is why xG matters. Opta puts Celtic’s xGA at 0.89 a game over the first six league games. It is a useful context, but it is not a like-for-like seven-game comparison.
That is the confirmed part: shots have nearly doubled. The data does not settle how good those shots were. The xGA figure changes with the provider and the window. The data also does not show how many shots came from range or from poor angles. A fair claim about chance quality needs one provider across both seasons.
A Sound League Record can Hide a Defensive Problem
Celtic have conceded four league goals in seven games. One of them is an own goal by Colby Donovan. Opta shows 0.5 goals conceded a game over the first six league games. Under O’Neill’s interim spells in 2025/26, the figure was 0.9.
Last season went the other way. Celtic conceded 41 goals from an xGA of 36.3. That swing shows how much luck and goalkeeping can move a record. Read Celtic reaches a similar view. It says Celtic have faced 38 more shots than at this point last year.
Here is the interpretation. A good record and a rising shot count can sit together. Weaker league opponents help. So does some good finishing at one end and some misses at the other. The biggest problems also sit in the Old Firm games and in Europe. Celtic lost 3-0 at Ibrox, 1-0 at home to Rangers and 3-1 to Ferencváros. Those are the games where mistakes cost most.
Celtic’s summer spending provides further context. The club invested more than £25 million in attacking players and is now joint top of the league’s scoring charts. That highlights the squad’s attacking strength, although it doesn’t necessarily mean defensive improvements were overlooked.
Where Celtic’s Defensive Shape Breaks Down
Rest Defence and Midfield Protection
Rest defence is the shape a team keeps behind the ball while attacking. It decides how easily the other side can break. Two goals show the problem.
Against Rangers, Celtic cleared a corner only as far as Kim Min-su. His strike was parried by Viljami Sinisalo. Ryan Naderi scored from the rebound. Against Ferencváros, Daniel Arzani scored with a 20-yard drive in the 47th minute.
Those are facts. This is the reading. Kim’s shot and Arzani’s drive both came from the edge of the box. Both suggest weak cover in front of the back line.
Pressing and Transitions
The available data doesn’t show how each opposition attack began, so the role of pressing and transitions remains an interpretation. Celtic appear vulnerable immediately after losing possession, when players need to recover their defensive positions.
Against Rangers, Celtic conceded 15 shots, including eight on target, while creating far fewer attempts themselves. The gap suggests that losing possession in attacking areas may leave Celtic exposed.
The LASK match highlighted a similar problem. Celtic held a 4-0 aggregate lead but eventually lost 5-4. After a 1-1 first half, LASK scored in the 48th, 58th and 90th minutes. Once the game became more open, Celtic struggled to regain control.
The Back-three Question
Celtic lined up in a 3-4-3 against Rangers. Cameron Carter-Vickers, Auston Trusty and Liam Scales formed the back three. Colby Donovan and Kieran Tierney played at wing-back, with Mika Baur and Callum McGregor in central midfield. O’Neill made three changes from the Ferencváros game.
The evidence points to three possible weaknesses, although these remain interpretations:
- Space after losing possession. Rangers scored after Celtic failed to clear a loose ball following a corner.
- Limited midfield protection. Arzani found enough space to shoot from 20 yards.
- Attacks breaking down too easily. Rangers registered 15 shots compared with Celtic’s five, suggesting Celtic struggled to maintain attacking pressure.
What This Means for Sinisalo and the Centre-backs
FBref lists 29 shots on target against Celtic in the first seven league games, about four a game. Celtic faced more shots overall, so Sinisalo has had more to deal with. That does not make him the problem.
In the Rangers’ defeat, he parried the shot from Kim before Naderi scored the rebound.
The back line has changed often. O’Neill made four changes after the League Cup loss to Rangers. He made three more for the league game. That does not prove one pairing is weaker. It does show that the defensive roles have changed from game to game.
What LASK and Ferencváros showed about Control
Celtic beat LASK 3-0 in Glasgow and led 4-0 on aggregate after McGregor scored in the return. LASK then scored four times in normal time before Samuel Adeniran completed the comeback in extra time. The Austrian side won 5-1 and progressed 5-4 on aggregate. Adeniran scored twice, the first from 25 yards.
This was a game-management failure. Game state is important, too, because Celtic were protecting a four-goal aggregate lead. This is interpretation: they let the match open up.
Ferencváros was different. Two of the three goals came from a deflection and a long-range drive. That mixes luck with structure. O’Neill called the result another European lesson.
Here is a short reading. Adeniran and Arzani both scored from range when space opened up. The common thread is control. Celtic look less secure when rivals attack quickly after Celtic lose the ball.
What Martin O’Neill Needs to Change
Celtic’s priority should be to reduce the pressure on Sinisalo and the centre-backs. More saves and tackles won’t solve the underlying problem. The team needs to give opponents fewer opportunities to attack.
Read Celtic reports that O’Neill wanted more summer signings, but reinforcements won’t help in the next match. Three adjustments could make an immediate difference:
- Improve midfield cover. Keep one midfielder closer to the centre-backs during attacks to protect against counterattacks and second balls.
- Organize defensive recovery. Maintain better positioning after corners to avoid the gaps Rangers exploited.
- Reduce unnecessary long balls. Retaining possession would limit turnovers and relieve pressure on the defence.
Celtic may not need another formation change. Better organization and more consistent execution could be enough.
With nine games in 28 days, according to O’Neill, there is little time for major tactical changes. A reliable, familiar system may be more valuable than experimenting with a new one.
The Next Few Matches Will Show Whether This Is a Trend
Celtic play at Motherwell on Sunday 11 October. They then face Benfica away on 15 October. Hearts visit Celtic Park on 18 October. Celta Vigo comes on 22 October. Those games should provide a better test of whether the early shot numbers are a real trend.
- Shots conceded. Watch this at Motherwell. The baseline is 11.1 a game.
- Shots after Celtic turnovers. Watch this at Benfica. It is the only away European game in this run.
- Corners and second-ball situations. Watch this against Hearts. A tidy shape after corners would be the first visible sign of change.
- Shots on target conceded. Watch this against Celta Vigo. The baseline is about four a game.
Image Source: unsplash.com
