With Celtic already 5 points clear of his side, can McInnes survive elimination from the Europa League and League Cup?

Derek McInnes has not yet completed two full weeks of competitive football, yet week two of his fledgling Ibrox career could be career defining.

He entered into this week already 5 points adrift of Celtic and St. Mirren.

Considering how tight the top of the Scottish Premiership can be, that’s a pretty substantial gap already.

This applies undue pressure to McInnes at a very early juncture in the season.

With that undue pressure comes the urgent need to win a Europa League tie his side already trail in.

This heaps pressure upon pressure.

As we know, Derek McInnes does not handle pressure well.

It’s also clearly evident that the cracks are starting to show in McInnes this early in his tenure at Ibrox.

What started out as a dream for lifelong Ibrox supporter McInnes, fast has the capability to turn into a nightmare.

At breakneck speed.

His next two games are must win.

There is zero margin for error.

Lose to Jagiellonia Białystok on Thursday night, and McInnes suffers the ignominy of dropping to a Europa Conference League qualifier.

This is something that is unheard of at Ibrox.

Despite their youthful age of just 14, the Ibrox club has never experienced Conference League football.

They have never dropped below the Europa League.

And traditionally, last year aside, they generally produce a decent enough showing in that competition.

The Conference League is unwanted, uncharted territory at Ibrox.

Despite the fact that EPL clubs are happy to win it, with Chelsea, West Ham, and Crystal Palace all winners in recent years, the Ibrox side would consider the Conference League to be beneath them.

Hell, as a Celtic fan, I would consider it beneath us, and we don’t suffer from the kind of hubris they do over Ibrox way.

It’s not the level of European football either Glasgow club aspires to take part in.

Yet ironically, it’s probably the most realistic avenue to a European final for clubs at our level.

But the difference between us and EPL clubs, is that we rely heavily on the revenue streams that the Europa League and Champions League provides us with.

Because we do not have access to the insane levels of TV money EPL clubs do, we rely on serious earnings coming from participation in European competition.

However, the revenue streams from the Europa Conference League would fall way below the kind of income levels that are critical to the likes of us and the Ibrox side.

Considering the amount of players the Ibrox side has brought in in this window, Conference League participation would go no where near covering that expenditure.

They have already spent close to £20 million in this window, with only £7 million of that recouped thus far.

Chermiti is crocked now, and cannot be sold.

Raskin is the subject of a couple of magical SMSM driven bids, but in reality, we know there’s been no concrete interest.

The maximum a club can win in the Europa Conference League is just over £19 million.

To achieve that, you need to win the competition.

A League phase game in that competition pays just £342,000 for a win, and £114,000 for a draw.

Compare and contrast that to the Champions League, which pays £1.8 million for a win, and £642,000 for a draw, and you can see the monumental gap in levels financially.

Financially, the Conference League would be a disaster for the Ibrox side.

Derek McInnes now finds himself under the pressure that comes with that.

So, without putting too fine a point on it, he’s going to be in the shit if they don’t qualify for the Europa League on Thursday night next at Ibrox.

Imagine that scenario plays out, and then they have to face in form St. Mirren at Ibrox in the League Cup on Sunday?

After Europa League elimination, the atmosphere will be toxic in Govan on Sunday.

This scenario is unthinkable for McInnes.

Craig McLeish and his St. Mirren side will have examined the loss to Hibernian, and should they exit to Jagiellonia Białystok on Thursday night, the Buddies will see them as there for the taking.

They will believe they have nothing to fear going to Ibrox.

Lose that League Cup tie – and you then have to ask – how does McInnes survive that outcome?

Can he survive that outcome?

This kind of scenario will make Russell Martin’s first five games look like a dream start in comparison.

If by next Monday, Derek McInnes begins the week 5 points adrift of the top of the table, and eliminated from two major competitions, will Andrew Cavenagh have a decision to make?

Well, I don’t need to ask that question really.

He does have to make a choice, shit or bust.

Stick or twist?

Or will Staunch Raynjurz hero, Derek McInnes, end up having the shortest tenure as an Ibrox manager in the history of both clubs?

If that comes to pass, it will put an end to McInnes’ career as a manager.

There’s no way he survives that with his reputation intact.

I cannot emphasise enough the pressure he is already under.

Just think about it.

A few short months ago, he was on the brink of winning the Scottish Premiership title.

Fast forward to now, and he is in danger of ending up on the managerial scrap heap that many Ibrox managers before him have ended up on.

The difference is, he could go down as the worst Ibrox appointment of all time.

If results do not go his way in the next two games, he will be the ultimate example of how the Ibrox club eats you, chews you up, and spits you out.

Even if Cavenagh sticks with him after a scenario such as this one, the klanbase will round on him anyway.

His days will be numbered regardless.

Derek McInnes’ next two games at Ibrox will make or break him.

I doubt that anybody – including Derek McInnes – imagined he’d be in that scenario with less than two weeks of the season gone.

For a man who cannot handle pressure, that’s a hell of a lot of pressure.

We’ve got an interesting week ahead of us.

No doubt there’ll be a lot of rubbernecking from Celtic Park when it comes to this car crash.

This is manna from heaven for our board.

As for us, the fans?

It makes for brilliant watching and entertainment.

But you still have that nagging feeling in the back of your mind that McInnes’ fate will determine our board’s ambition, don’t you?

You do, don’t you?

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