Jonathan Fear 
We all do it.
A striker goes six matches without scoring and somebody says he is due a goal.
Celtic lose a couple of difficult matches and we convince ourselves that a big performance must be around the corner.
Then there is the old favourite.
“We can’t keep missing chances like this.”
Well, actually, we can.
Football has never promised to distribute good and bad fortune evenly. It does not check the previous results before deciding what happens next.
That is why the word “due” can be dangerous.
A run tells us what happened, not what comes next
Form matters.
Nobody is seriously suggesting that five good performances should be ignored. If Celtic are creating chances, defending well and controlling matches, there is a genuine football reason to expect more positive results.
But the run itself proves nothing about the next game.
Different opposition brings different problems. A key player can get injured. A referee can make a poor decision. One deflection can turn a comfortable afternoon into ninety minutes of frustration.
That is football.
It is also why I become nervous whenever somebody treats a recent sequence as though the game owes us something.
It owes us absolutely nothing.
Football and casino games are not the same
This becomes even clearer when you compare football with games based on independent random outcomes.
Suppose a roulette wheel lands on red five times in succession.
The familiar reaction is that black must be coming next. It feels logical because five reds look unbalanced.
But the wheel is not trying to create a tidy pattern.
Assuming it is operating properly, none of its pockets has disappeared. The previous results have not changed the layout, and the next spin does not remember what happened five minutes earlier.
That mistaken belief is known as the gambler’s fallacy. We see a sequence and convince ourselves that the opposite outcome is now overdue.
It is the same reason a losing run on a slot game should never be interpreted as evidence that a win is approaching. Each result stands on its own.
Check the information that actually matters
If somebody visits a new online casino, the useful questions concern what can be verified before playing.
Is the service available in their location? What rules apply? Which payment methods are supported? What conditions are attached to a promotion or withdrawal?
Those details cannot reveal the next result.
They can explain how the service and its games work, which is far more useful than staring at a short sequence and inventing a pattern that is not there.
That distinction also applies to football analysis.
We recently looked at what a betting market actually tells us about Celtic. Odds can reflect team news, form, injuries and the weight of money in a market.
They are an assessment.
They are not a promise.
Celtic performances need football explanations
Football differs from a roulette wheel because teams can react.
Managers change shape. Players learn from mistakes. Training can address a weakness that appeared in the previous match.
If Celtic have failed to score in three games, the answer is not simply that a goal is due.
Are we creating clear chances?
Is the striker receiving the ball in useful areas?
Are our wide players delivering anything into the box?
Is the opposition sitting deep because it knows we struggle to break down a compact defence?
Those are football questions.
“Surely our luck has to change” is not a football answer.
The same applies when we are winning. A sequence of victories does not mean everything is functioning properly. Poor performances can hide beneath good results until a stronger opponent exposes the problem.
We have seen that often enough.
There is no invisible force balancing the results
Supporters will always look for patterns. It is part of trying to understand a game that regularly makes no sense.
But we should be honest about what those patterns tell us.
A winning run may reflect good football. A losing run may reveal a real weakness. Either one can also contain injuries, mistakes, and moments of luck that will not be repeated.
Nothing is guaranteed to continue.
Nothing is guaranteed to reverse.
So the next time somebody says Celtic are “due” a result, ask the obvious question.
Why?
If there is a football reason, let’s hear it.
If the only evidence is that the opposite result has happened several times, then we are not analysing Celtic.
We are just hoping the universe is keeping score.
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